Vet World Vol.15 July-2022 Article-28
Research Article
Veterinary World, 15(7): 1814-1820
https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2022.1814-1820
Estimation of the probability risks of African swine fever outbreaks using the maximum entropy method in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia
2. Veterinary Public Health Study Program, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia.
3. Department of Animal Disease and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor, Indonesia.
Background and Aim: African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease and a major viral pig disease that threatens pork production in several locations globally. The mortality rate of ASF in domestic pigs is very high, causing a decrease in pig populations and significant economic losses for farmers. Environmental or ecological risk factors are the most important associated with the spread of the ASF virus. Environmental (or ecological) niche models are commonly used to estimate the probability of an event using the maximum entropy (Maxent) method. This study aimed to estimate the probability risk of future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia.
Materials and Methods: Secondary data from the National Animal Health System Database (iSIKHNAS), including data on the ASF outbreaks of 2019–2020 in North Sumatra, Indonesia, were used in this study. The first analysis performed involved the identification of environmental risk factors using multiple regression analysis. The second analysis performed was the estimation of probability risk for future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia, using the Maxent method. Data processing was performed using Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS version 10.5 software (ESRI, California, United States), Maxent version 3.4.4 software, and Rstudio (http://www.r-project.org/).
Results: The Maxent method was found to be highly accurate with a statistically significant area under the curve value of 0.860. The greatest contributing environmental factor identified by the model was the harbor, which contributed 57%. The range of high probability risk of future ASF outbreaks was found to be 0.723–0.84.
Conclusion: The estimation of the highest probability risk of future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia, was 0.723–0.84. The most contributing environmental factor identified using the Maxent method was harbors, at 57%. This methodology can be used to carry out subsequent ASF analyses and contribute to developing prevention and control strategies in this area. Keywords: African swine fever, environmental niche models, maximum entropy, probability risk.
Keywords: African swine fever, environmental niche models, maximum entropy, probability risk.
How to cite this article: Primatika RA, Sudarnika E, Sumiarto B, Basri C (2022) Estimation of the Probability Risks of African Swine Fever Outbreaks Using the Maximum Entropy Method in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia, Veterinary World, 15(7): 1814–1820.
Received: 04-03-2022 Accepted: 08-06-2022 Published online: 26-07-2022
Corresponding author: Roza Azizah Primatika E-mail: roza.azizah@apps.ipb.ac.id
DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.1814-1820
Copyright: Primatika, et al. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.