Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation

Vet World Vol.15 July-2022 Article-2

Research Article

Veterinary World, 15(7): 1610-1616

https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2022.1610-1616

Valeriy Alexandrovich Agoltsov¹, Dmitry Vasilievich Podshibyakin², Larisa Pavlovna Padilo¹, Oleg Yurievich Chernykh³, Olga Mikhailovna Popova¹, Lyudmila Victorovna Stupina¹, and Nataliya Victorovna Solotova¹

1. Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia.
2. Scientific Research Institute of Technologies of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry and Biotechnology LLC, Saratov, Russia.
3. Department of Microbiology and Animal Virology, Kuban State Agrarian University Named after I.T. Trubulin, Krasnodar, Russia.

Background and Aim: This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Materials and Methods: PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen's ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software. The territories of Bangladesh, China, and Algeria were used as model countries because they have the highest number of confirmed PPR outbreaks, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2009 to 2020. The prepared global model of the PPR pathogen's ecological niche was extrapolated onto the territory of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation to assess the probability of virus introduction in that region.

Results: Global model analysis showed that two factors exerted the highest influence on the spread of the PPR pathogen on a global scale: The minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year and the density of roads per unit area, which reflect the overall economic activity within a region. The highest risk of PPR spread was observed in areas with a minimum annual temperature of 16°C and road density of 5000 m/km2.

Conclusion: According to the model, areas with a dominant subtropical climate, where small livestock breeding is performed and where the average daily air temperature is >0°C throughout the year, are at the highest risk of PPR outbreaks. The risk of PPR spreading outside these areas is significantly reduced. Local extrapolation of the PPR ecological niche model demonstrates that the probability of epizootic development does not exceed 3–4% within the territories of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adjacent to Mongolia and China. Keywords: ecological niche, environmental factors, goat, linear regression model, maximum entropy model, peste des petits ruminants, sheep, species distribution.

Keywords: ecological niche, environmental factors, goat, linear regression model, maximum entropy model, peste des petits ruminants, sheep, species distribution.

How to cite this article: Agoltsov VA, Podshibyakin DV, Padilo LP, Chernykh OY, Popova OM, Stupina LV, Solotova NV (2022) Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation, Veterinary World, 15(7): 1610-1616.

Received: 13-02-2022 Accepted: 25-05-2022 Published online: 07-07-2022

Corresponding author: Nataliya Victorovna Solotova E-mail: nsolotova@mail.ru

DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.1610-1616

Copyright: Agoltsov, et al. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.